2025 Fantasy Football Busts 2.0: Why Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Sam LaPorta may not meet lofty ADPs

One of the things I fight the most at this time of year is that I say that a player will not meet expectations, fantasy managers think I hate this player. Of course, this is not how it works; Almost everything we say about the players of the fantastic football world is relating to their cost. I listed Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as busts, and they were great, but I still haven’t been up to the ADP. I listed Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley as busts and, well, it looked stupid. The point being, good, even great players, can be busts if they are written too high. Is the same thing true for great offenses?

Detroit lions are testing theory. Yes, the Lions, which scored 68 offensive touch last year. Let’s start with their ADP in the first CBS currents:

RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs, 4th in total
WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown, 8th in total
Te4 Sam Laporta, 57th in total
WR29 Jameson Williams, 63rd in total
RB25 David Montgomery, 66th in total
QB19 Jared Goff, 127th in total

Let’s start with the evidence: Jared Goff is not a bust. Goff is in a way drafted to finish 13 places below in QB than last year, while organizing an offense that produces five best players in fantastic football. I don’t understand. I classify GOFF to QB12, six places worse than its end 2024, and it is the best value on the day of the draft at the post.

I think that the argument against Goff is that he has just had a year of career that he is unlikely to correspond, he has lost Ben Johnson, the attacking coordinator responsible for the best attack in football in the past two years, and he has lost Frank Ragnot, an All-Pro center. I believe these are valid concerns. I would also add that specifically, the rate of TD of 6.9% of Goff compared to last year is likely to regress; Its summit in previous careers was 5.9% and its career brand even after last year is only 4.8%. But these arguments apply to almost everyone in this offense.

Gibbs scored on 6.6% of its keys last year, compared to 4.7% in 2023.
St. Brown scored 8.5% of its objectives last year, compared to 4.9% the first three years of his career.
Williams has the same concerns of regression of TD and leaves 11.8 yards per target, a metric of efficiency No WR could never maintain.
Laporta scored at a crazy pace of two years in a row, but last year, her goals fell so hard that the affected were the only reason why he ranked in the Top 12 in the worst position of Fantasy.

To say things in another way, these four best combined options for 3,507 reception yards and 30 receipt affected in 2024. If they want to correspond (or exceed, in some cases, according to ADP) these figures in 2025, how will he devil Jared Goff will finish QB19? For me, the answer is a two -part response. First, Goff will not finish QB19; This is why he was in my sleeper article. Two, at least two of these guys are likely to take a significant step in 2025.

I want to end that where I started it. I always have the lions which should mark 52 affected last year, the second highest total of my projection. I always expect them to be one of the best NFL offenses, while scoring 16 less affected than in 2024. This puts me lower on Gibbs, St. Brown and Laporta than ADP. I have Williams in a very similar place and I actually think that Montgomery is a value if it remains healthy. You don’t have to agree with me on all these guys. But I suggest that you determine which two lions will not justify their ADP this year. If you can’t find two, you should probably just write Jared Goff in the second round of each project you do.

Here are eight other busts for fantastic football in 2025: