NBA Finals: Recent Game 7 trends suggest Thunder and Pacers are in for close, defensive battle

Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will compete for the last time on Sunday in match 7 of the 2025 NBA final. Their fascinating series has far exceeded expectations, and only seven points in total separate the two teams in the first six games.

This is the first time that the finals have followed the distance since 2016, when the Cleveland riders have completed their historic 3-1 return to defeat the Golden State Warriors 73-Win. The Thunder has won 68 games this season, which is the most victories of any team since this Warriors group. Will they meet the same fate?

Classification all the finals of the NBA since the last match 7: Thunder against Pacers High on the list like LeBron James, the Warriors dominate

Jasmyn Wimbish

Before what should be a fascinating affair of winner, here is an overview of certain trends in match 7 of the NBA match and what they can tell us on Sunday.

Expect a low-score case …

The Thunder and the Pacers were two of the best offensive teams in the League this season, and accumulated this series. The two teams crossed the threshold of 100 points in five of the six games, and the only time a team failed to reach this brand was the Thunder in match 6, when they collected 91 points.

History says that the trend will not continue. No team has reached 100 points in a match 7 of the final since 1988, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Detroit Pistons, 108-105. In the last five occasions when the final has traveled the distance, the greatest number of points that the team scored was 95 by the Miami Heat in 2013.

In the 19 previous final games 7, the two teams scored 100 points six times, but only four times in regulation. And out of these six previous cases, four of them came in the 1950s or 1960s, when the league rhythm was out of control.

“I do not highlight anything that is not obvious. Our defense was more consistent in these playoffs, especially than our offense,” Thunder coach Mark Daignault said on Saturday.

“I think that generally, the offensive is more difficult in the playoffs for everyone. The same goes for Indiana in this series. Their attack is not where it was in the regular season or even earlier in the playoffs. I think it is just more difficult to mark when you play a team again and again.”

… and a loved one

This series was extremely competitive in match 1, when Tyrese Haliburton amazed the Thunder with his winter winning in the last second. Three of the first six games have reached crisis time, which is defined as the five -point margin with five minutes or less.

There is a good chance that we have another close to Sunday. The average margin of victory in match 7 of the final is only 6.9 points, which is the smallest of all the games in the final. There was no final of the match 7 decided two figures since 1978, when the Washington bullets beat the Seattle Supersonics by 16.

Of the 19 previous final games 7, the more decided by five or less (nine) have been decided than what was decided two figures (five).

A narrow game could be an advantage for the Pacers, who have managed a few historic feedback during this incredible race and were extremely calm under pressure. They are a remarkable 9-2 in clutch games in the playoffs. Over the past decade, only Miami Heat 2020 has won more clutch victories (11) in a single qualifying series.

“I think that as a group, we have just been very resilient throughout the playoffs,” said Tyrese Haliburton on Saturday. “We are a group of guys who get along very well and try to do something special. I think the expectations for this group from an external point of view in the year were not very high. They were not very high in the playoffs. They were not very high in the second round of the playoffs now. They were not very high in the third round.

“I think we just did a great job to stay together. There is not a group of guys with whom I prefer to wage war. I am really excited to compete with these guys in a match 7, and it will be very fun.”

Homecourt will be a major factor

The home team won four of the first six games in this series, and it could easily have been. In the two games where the road team became victorious – Indiana in match 1 and Oklahoma City in match 4 – it took major return efforts.

The story says that the Thunder has a big advantage by being at home, and indeed, they are favorites of 7.5 points, which is the fourth biggest match 7, in any round, since 2014.

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Brad Crawford

While the last final matches 7 followed the road to the road team when the riders beat the Warriors in Oakland, the visitors historically managed to win such competitions. The Cavs were the first team on the road to win a game 7 of the final since the bubbles did in 1978, and out of the previous 19 of these matches, only four were won by the road team:

• 1969: Boston Celtics 108, Los Angeles Lakers 106
• 1974: Boston Celtics 102, Milwaukee Bucks 87
• 1978: Washington Bullets 105, Seattle Supersonics 99
• 2016: Cleveland Cavaliers 93, Golden State Warriors 89

At this point, it should be noted that the Thunder was unbeatable at home this season. They went 35-6 to the Paycc Center in the regular season and have 10-2 in the playoffs. And these two losses in the playoffs – Match 1 of the second round against the Denver Nuggets and match 1 of the final – were on the winners of the last second after blowing big tracks.

During their 12 playoff games at home, the Thunder posted nine two -digit victories, including four per 30 points and more. Their net note at home in the playoffs is an amazing more-20.7.

“The crowd is incredible,” said Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Saturday. “You are finally in your complete comfort zone. The flow towards the day does not change. You are in your own bed